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Learn Commodity Trading. Trade Crude Oil Futures. Meet High Velocity Market Master and day trade or swing trade stocks, futures, options, forex, commodities, bonds, etfs with his unique trading system. High oil prices are considered to be inflationary and tend to slow down the economy. Low oil prices are always considered good for the economy. As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary. Now all these effects have a time lag factor built in them. If the crude oil prices increase or jump suddenly like that in 1973, it takes time for the increased oil prices to start affecting the other factors in the economy.

No mew major discovery of an oil well has been made in the past two decades. This means that the supply of oil is dwindling while the global demand for oil is on the rise. Now you need to understand the Peak Oil Concept. Peak oil is the concept that the world oil production has peaked and the production of oil will never be as high again. Oil prices and the interest rates generally move in the same direction when viewed over long periods of time.

Many oil wells have gone dry. US was a major producer of oil in the beginning of the 20th century but over time, depleted all its oil reservoirs. The last oil well went dry in Texas in the early part of 1970s. Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades. Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry.

The peak oil concept is very important for you to know. This means that now in the next few decades, we will be witnessing an uptrend in the oil prices as the global demand increases and the supply is unable to catch up with the global demand of oil. When oil prices reach above $100 per barrel, it becomes too expensive for the industry as well as the private consumer. With this price level, chances are that more and more investment will go into the alternative energy industry. Now you should keep these facts in the background of your mind as a trader. In any case, most of the experts now agree that in the next 10-20 years, the oil production will peak and after that it will start declining.

Now this means that in the short run, following oil prices can be a highly profitable strategy. Your aim as a trader is to make quick profits by trading the price fluctuations in the oil market. So the important facts that you need to keep in the back of your mind while trading oil is: 1) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. 2) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts.

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The consumer continues to be under duress. Job losses continue to mount; while weekly readings are down from their highs, initial unemployment claims are still running above expectations. For those already out of work, they face only a finite amount of unemployment benefits. Housing prices continue to fall, again, at a slower pace, but the effect is still the same as Americans can no longer draw on their home values for spending or count on the ever-rising house price for future wealth increases. Credit lines are being drawn in by card issuers and consumers face high fees for their outstanding debt balances. Without question, these factors have had their effect on consumer spending (and saving). Retail sales continue to contract more than economists have expected. The savings rate, at 4.6 percent, remains close to the 13-year high it reached in May.

The tough consumer environment clearly is having an effect on retailers, who have largely struggled through this deep recession. At the expense of profits, most have cut prices to keep up sales volumes; job cuts and inventory reductions have helped support profit margins, but there is no getting around the dismal environment. On the other hand, some retailers have held their own. One in particular has been Wal-Mart (WMT). The world’s largest retailer reported second-quarter earnings last week that not only beat analysts’ expectations, but also showed growth versus the year earlier period.

For the first time in five weeks, the market posted a weekly decline last week, changing the underlying mood from overwhelmingly bullish to more cautious. Market participants concentrated on retail sales numbers and on the decline in consumer confidence as measured by Reuters and the University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment.

While the auto sector has received a boost from cash-for-clunkers-related sales, the overall picture continues to reflect a consumer who’s stretched beyond his means. Foreclosure filings rose to a record, and retail sales declined the most since March. Americans are increasingly seeking bankruptcy protection: 35 percent more individuals or households file for bankruptcy today than a year ago, and the numbers are moving higher. The trend is also very disturbing for businesses, with a 64 percent increase in filings over a six-month period versus a year ago.

These are just some of the reasons why I am concerned that the market’s advance is overdone. The government spending, which has been replacing both consumer and business demand, has been helping the economy, but this just cannot replace all the demand that’s been lost – and cannot go on forever.

The other day, Warren Buffett reiterated his views on the government spending by writing an op-ed piece for The New York Times. Buffett called it a “butterfly effect” as the consequences of the government spending could exceed the size of it. With the U.S. economy “out of the emergency room,” now could be the time to address the size of that spending. “With government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.”

Buffett finished his op-ed article with the following: “Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.” I cannot agree more. This is why I like the markets of those countries that are commodities-rich, expecting commodities to benefit from the weaker dollar. And, of course, I like gold – the ultimate dollar hedge.

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Technorati Tags: Auto Sector, Card Issuers, Consumer Confidence, Consumer Environment, Future Wealth, Home Values, hostgator, House Price, Index Of Consumer Sentiment, Initial Unemployment Claims, Inventory Reductions, Market Participants, Michigan Index, Profit Margins, Reuters, Sales Numbers, Second Quarter Earnings, Support Profit, Unemployment Benefits, Wal Mart, Wal Mart Wmt